???? Smart Defaults: All parameters below are automatically calculated from your data and market intelligence. You can adjust them if you have specific insights or want to test different scenarios.
Churn rate calculated from actual client behavior patterns. New client forecasts based on 3-month rolling averages. All metrics derived directly from your uploaded operations data.
Automatic separation of new vs existing clients based on first transaction dates. Different activity multipliers applied to account for onboarding period and established usage patterns.
Turkey B2B travel seasonality factors: Jan-Feb low (0.85-0.90), Mar-May peak (1.05-1.15), Jun-Aug holiday impact (0.85-1.05), Sep-Nov business high (1.10-1.15), Dec year-end (0.90).
Working days calendar includes Turkish national and religious holidays. Economic indicators and business travel recovery patterns post-pandemic. Industry-specific growth trajectories.
Conservative: 80% new client acquisition, 92% retention. Most Likely: baseline parameters. Optimistic: 125% new acquisition, 103% retention. All adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors.
Model accounts for economic uncertainty, competitive pressure, and market saturation. Confidence intervals based on historical variance and current month progression.
This forecasting model combines your actual business performance with market intelligence for realistic planning. Use Conservative scenario for budget planning, Most Likely for operational targets, and Optimistic for growth investment decisions. Review and recalibrate monthly as new data becomes available. Focus on improving client retention and increasing transaction frequency for sustainable growth.